Chicago Cubs Lineup: Kevin Alcantara Starts

CUBS LINEUP — Win this game and you win the series, while finishing the nominal “first half” with a comfortable, albeit underwhelming, 91-win pace.

Lose this game, and you lose the series while entering the break at a much more playoff-borderline 89-win pace.

Obviously — well, I hope this is obvious — the season doesn’t actually hinge on this game, especially because the Reds aren’t really pushing for a playoff spot the Cubs are currently occupying. But I’m telling you, the All-Star break will feel disproportionately kinder if the Cubs win today.

Here’s a look at the Cubs lineup against another Reds lefty, Andrew Abbott.

Chicago Cubs Lineup:

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
2. Seiya Suzuki, RF
3. Alex Bregman, 3B
4. Carson Kelly, C
5. Michael Busch, 1B
6. Nico Hoerner, 2B
7. Ian Happ, LF
8. Dansby Swanson SS
9. Kevin Alcantara, DH

For the second straight start against a lefty, Craig Counsell is giving Kevin Alcantara a start. And that’s only fair, seeing as it’s his birthday! That pushes Miguel Amaya back to the bench and Carson Kelly back behind the plate.

With Alcantara in, but batting ninth, Dansby Swanson stays “up” at eighth. Ian Happ stays down at seventh, and Seiya Suzuki is still batting second over Alex Bregman.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup:

1. Elly De La Cruz, SS
2. Sal Stewart, 1B
3. Spencer Steer, CF
4. JJ Bleday, LF
5. Eugenio Suarez, DH
6. Tyler Stephenson, C
7. Noelvi Marte, RF
8. Bronson Arroyo, 2B
9. Ke’Byan Hayes, 3B

Pitching Matchup:

Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd, LHP

Matthew Boyd needed a few starts to ramp up to a full pitch count, but he got there in his last start against the Orioles (93 pitches) in what was his best start of the season and actually his best start by Game Score since August 2 of last year!

The best part is that the increased strikeout rate he has flashed throughout his limited healthy time this season remains in tact. Compared to his own career, opposing batters are offering at more balls out of the zone (more likely to be whiffs or weak contact) and making less contact with strikes in the zone.

The overall swinging strike rate is up, too. I’d love to see him keep up this profile the rest of the way, because it’s the kind of starter you could imagine taking a playoff game with some confidence. We’ll see.

Now as for today’s game, one thing to note about that start against the Orioles that was so good: Baltimore (92 wRC+, 22nd in MLB) is much, much worse versus left-handed pitching than the Reds (107 wRC+, 7th).

Shota Imanaga did well enough on Friday, but the Reds knocked him out of the game north of 100 pitches after just 5.0 innings of work.

Given the state of the bullpen, the Cubs will probably need more than that out of Boyd today.

Cincinnati Reds: Andrew Abbott, LHP

Andrew Abbott was already a pretty solid starter in 2023 and 2024, his first two years in the league, but he broke out on the results side last season with a 2.87 ERA over 29 starts and 166.1 IP.

This year, the results have faded back a full run (3.92 ERA) while the peripherals have taken a nose-dive: 4.79 xERA, 4.89 FIP.

On a more practical level, that’s because his strikeout rate has dropped and his walk rate has nearly doubled to 10.3%. But in exchange, Abbott is generating many more groundballs and fewer barrels. Not sure that was actually a worthy trade-off it was intentional, but that seems to be the deal.

Random final notes:

• Abott is a traditional split guy, though it’s not particularly dramatic. Righties are just solidly better than lefties against him.

• Abott has allowed 11 home runs over his last 10 starts

Broadcast Info:

Cubs vs Reds – Key Injuries:

Cubs vs Reds – Great American Ballpark Weather Report

Location: Cincinnati, OH
Temperature: 81 degrees, high chance of rain
Wind: Blowing left to right (11 MPH)