The Derby is always a blast, but I’m not sure we’ve ever had eight competitors who are as individually compelling to watch as what we’ll see in Philadelphia on Monday. Even without Aaron Judge, two-time Derby winner Pete Alonso or defending champion Cal Raleigh, this lineup is absolutely stacked.
Because I am a professional prognosticator — or at least someone who types many words very fast about baseball, hopefully for your amusement and enlightenment — I must make some predictions. So here are your 2026 Home Run Derby power rankings.
Any of these guys could win. Here’s a semi-educated guess at who will. To be clear: I’ve listed the players in order of what I believe to be their likelihood of winning.
1. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
This is Schwarber’s third Home Run Derby appearance, and his second as a Phillie. (He competed as a Cub in 2018 and finished second. We’ll get to who he finished second to in a bit.) If there’s ever a year when he’s going to win the whole thing, this is it: He’s launching homers at his usual prodigious rate, he’s healthy and he’s playing at his home park.
It would feel almost wrong if Schwarber, one of the great home run hitters of his time, never wears the Home Run Derby crown. There’s no better place to do to it than in front of his hometown fans. Well, unless …
2. Bryce Harper, Phillies
Yep, this is the guy who beat Schwarber back in 2018, when he was with the Nationals. That’s the last time Harper competed in the Derby, though it has been, remarkably, 13 years since his first Derby, when he finished second to Yoenis Cespedes. All told, it’s pretty fantastic that Harper — who has nothing else to prove in his likely Hall of Fame career at this point — is willing to do another Derby; it’s clear that competing in front of Philly fans was too much to resist.
No hitter has won the Derby in his home ballpark since … 2018 (there’s that year again), when Harper himself did it at Nationals Park. He could pull off that feat again this year — if Schwarber doesn’t beat him to it.
3. Junior Caminero, Rays
In a contest that can sometimes be grueling and wear down guys the more swings they take, it’s always helpful to have some youthful energy. Caminero certainly has that, and we know he has the power: His recent run of 11 homers in 11 games launched the Rays, one of the most surprising teams in baseball, into the stratosphere.
4. Munetaka Murakami, White Sox
What a relief it will be to have him healthy for this competition. Japanese baseball fans have been waiting to see how Murakami stands up against the most powerful hitters in Major League Baseball, and now we have the opportunity to find out.
There aren’t many players in baseball — in baseball history, really — who have hit moonshots quite like Murakami. And even if injuries have slowed him down in his rookie season, having him back and ready to go is a sign we’re about to see some of these impressive big flies launched into the Philadelphia night. It’s also excellent to see the White Sox — one of the best stories of the first half of the season — represented during All-Star Week as well. This is a team, and of course a player, that the world should see more of.
5. Jordan Walker, Cardinals
This is probably pretty aggressive for a first-time All-Star in his first Derby, particularly for a player who was this close to starting this season at Triple-A after three years of profound struggle. He’s not struggling anymore: 2026 has been his breakthrough season in every possible way.
Walker has become the hitter the Cardinals (and prospect mavens) thought he was going to become, and he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the sport. He has roughly the dimensions of Judge, and he nearly matches him in power. If he gets in a groove, he doesn’t even have to hit it on the sweet spot of the bat to get it out of the park. It still seems a year early for him to make a big run here, though. But we’ll see him again.
6. Jac Caglianone, Royals
Caglianone, like Caminero, is 23, which means he’d also be the youngest Home Run Derby champion. He only has 14 homers this year, so he hasn’t had quite the breakthrough season that Walker has, but they are always right there next to each other on the exit velocity leaderboards.
We’ve been talking about Caglianone’s power since he was a college star at Florida. He also had a huge June: He ranked among the American League leaders that month in OPS (1.036, tied for second), home runs (nine, tied for second), total bases (61, third) and average (.309, ninth). So he’s coming in hot.
7. Willson Contreras, Red Sox
It has been a whirlwind few weeks for Contreras, who has dealt with a suspension and battles with umpires amidst the overwhelming emotion in the aftermath of the horrors of the Venezuelan earthquakes. It will be moving just to see Contreras — a perpetually underrated hitter who has been basically the best thing going in Boston this year — on this sort of stage, and he has shown that he’s one of the top right-handed hitters in baseball.
Contreras’ swing would seem a little too line-drive-oriented to make too much of a splash in this Derby, considering his competition, but it’ll be difficult to find people not cheering for him.
8. Ben Rice, Yankees
He’s maybe not the Yankees hitter everyone was hoping to see in this competition, but it should be said that for the first two months of the season, this was in fact the best hitter on the Yankees — not Judge.
Rice did slow down considerably in June, but he’s rediscovered his power so far in July, and he has the sort of swing built for this. I’ll say this: If he’s the eighth pick … this is going to be some sort of interesting Derby.
